The NewsDemon Blog

Microsoft Believes You’ll Buy Anything

By Newsgroup Usenet August 18th, 2008

Recently, Microsoft launched a new tool to detect online commercial intention. The intention with the tool is to generate a statistical calculation on how likely an average user would be inclined to purchase from a website or the likelyhood they would be searching for keywords to purchase something.

For instance, using this with our own website, Newsdemon.com, we generated these results:

Probabilities for Each OCI Type:
Commercial-Informational    Prob.: 0.5848
NonCommercial                    Prob.: 0.37661
Commercial-Transactional    Prob.: 3.8585e-00
2

According to this tool, you are 58% likely to buy something from our website.

Running this for the keyword Usenet, generated these results:

Probability for Commercial Query:
0.13459

We have a measly 13% probability that someone will be likely to buy using this keyword. No one likes Usenet anymore? This prompted suspicion.

So we decided to look further into this and to see what else is more popular than Usenet according to this Microsoft tool. The following is our results.

Toe Nails
Probability for Commercial Query:
0.43807
Beats Usent by 30%

Lint
Probability for Commercial Query:
0.30344
Beats Usenet by 26%

Grandmas Dentures
Probability for Commercial Query:
0.32371
Beats Usenet by 19%

Used Tissues
Probability for Commercial Query:
0.54734
Beats Usenet by 41%!!!!
If Microsoft is using their own tool for there marketing and estimating the intelligence of their audience by the results of this system would explain the reasons for most of their current lines of products.

It begs the question at the end of the day, can poor Microsoft get anything right anymore?


 
  1. You seem to understand the tool a bit wrong. If you research “usenet”, then for sure this keyword obviously has a low commercial value because when someone searches for “usenet”, do you think he has a very great intention to buy? If I would search that term then I would most likely do some research on usenet, maybe finding some sites that offer usenet downloads, but do I definetely intend to buy something just when searching for “usenet”? For sure not, and hence the low commercial value.

    This looks different if you use the phrase “cheap usenet accounts” already. Then the probability that someone is looking to buy something is already at 50%. Clearly the user is now looking for something more specific already, and that is that he wants to buy a cheap usenet account somewhere. Because it still “somewhere”, the commercial-factor is still only at 50%. But definetely this is already hotter than if just someone is searching for “usenet”, which definetly doesn´t mean he has the intention to buy anything, as it can be everything.. a research about usenet, some technical information about how usenet works and so on, clear that this is not commercial yet, right?

    It´s though VERY good to see that this tool isn´t getting much attention and even bashed on some places that don´t seem to get how it works. This way I can keep my Adwords campaigns highly optimized (I´ve increased conversion rate/decreased Adwords costs dramatically since only bidding on keywords with at least 50% probablity according to Microsoft OCI tool) and kicking out the rest.

  2. Comment by — Torben — September 7, 2008